← 20250316 貓腳印-桃園店 HVN REGIONALS
Water GenbuTier 1
at 20250316 貓腳印-桃園店 HVN REGIONALS
decks
21
(11.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
144
76-56-12
overall winrate
56.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.4%
avg ELO +2.4 per match
expected value
51.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1301
· median 1324
· range 1028–1533
(21 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1211
Q3 1394
1730
29% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
29% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 13.9% | 17 | 4-12-1 | 26.5% | 31.0% | 36.2% | -5.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.6% | 10 | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 53.6% | 53.6% | +1.6 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 14 | 10-3-1 | 75.0% | 69.4% | 68.8% | +7.7 |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -3.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 14 | 8-6-0 | 57.1% | 55.6% | 58.0% | +3.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 14 | 7-6-1 | 53.6% | 52.8% | 57.0% | +2.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.4% | 11 | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -1.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 63.3% | +7.6 |
| Wind Byakko | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.8% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 68.7% | +10.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.5% | +5.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 30.5% | -12.5 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 2.2% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -2.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 54.8% | +3.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.2% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.8% | +11.3 |
| Fire Luxem Tamer | 1.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 67.4% | +13.0 |
| Water Neos | 1.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.0% | +14.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.1 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.5% | +8.2 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Fire Triskit | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Water Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Water Kongming | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.0% | +6.7 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.5% | -4.4 |
Decklists · 21 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 8 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Unbroken Mustang, Revitalizing Cleanse, Extricating Touch. Losers more often ran: Rippleback Terrapin, Lively Chorale, Jianyu, Fate's Premonition.
Unbroken Mustang
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 2.6.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Revitalizing Cleanse
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.9.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Extricating Touch
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Seaside Ringleader
Winning decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Glacial Evocation
Winning decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Pelagic Fatestone
Winning decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
losing decks 2.9.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Rippleback Terrapin
Losing decks ran 3.1
copies on average,
winning decks 1.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Lively Chorale
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Jianyu, Fate's Premonition
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Blinding Orb
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Banned
Dissonant Fractal
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Frostbind
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 69 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 49 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.62 | 5 | 0 | 2 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -0.62 | 1 | 6 | 1 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.62 | 6 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.62 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.50 | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +0.50 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | +0.38 | 4 | 1 | 3 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.38 | 4 | 1 | 3 | |
| Conniving Plans | +0.38 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| Lively Chorale | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fated Keepsake | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wildheart Lyre | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dissonant Fractal | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Floating Peace | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 7 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rousing Rattle Drum | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incandescent Reliquary | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Craggy Fatestone | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Glimmering Refusal | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dewdrop Hares | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mechanical Hare | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Think Deep | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alkahest | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Genbu's Command | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Relic of Sunken Past | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |